Calendar: 1927-1928 Page 495

Χ ΟΧ THE USES OF THE STUDY OF WAR loss and enabled us to limit the supplies and movements of our enemies but it could not control events on land after the soldiers were landed Bacon's dictum may well have been true of Elizabeth's island kingdom but it is not true of an Empire which has commitments in every quarter of the globe Even in what we call the secondary theatres of war we could not control events Political exigencies more than military necessities took us from the Persian Gulf to Mosul from the Suez Canal to Aleppo It is as dangerous to leave statements true in the past unexamined in the light of changes as it is to leave unexamined statements which were at no time true Since the war has brought about immense changes there is the greater need for examining past beliefs in the light of present knowledge Of these changes perhaps the one which affects us most directly is that we can no longer rely upon our Navy to protect our island from the form of attack to which it is most exposed Yet we are as de- pendent as ever we were upon our Navy to secure our communications and to assure our supply of food and raw materials It is serious matter for us to have to maintain two first lines of defence and that is to my mind one reason why it is in our interest to reduce by agreement the dangers of attack This brings me to the effect of changes in material on war Here too the temptation to think loosely is great How often are we told that this weapon or that has revolutionised war This has been said of tanks gas air- craft and submarines am not going to maintain that these weapons either severally or in combination may not revolutionise war but it is extremely doubtful whether they have yet done so though they certainly are the cause of great change in the technique of war History shows that great changes in the character of war are normally brought about by other forces than the power of weapons am here speaking of war as whole not of the tactics of the battlefield for the tendency is that sooner or later an antidote is found for each new form of attack It may think be said without exaggeration that the deadlock of trench warfare of 1915-1918 was revolution which changed the character of war But the prime cause of that change was only partly weapons it was still more numbers and the reason why armies of millions could be maintained in the field was think firstly develop- ment of railways roads and mechanical transport of all kinds which enabled supplies to be brought to the front in almost unlimited quanti- ties and secondly the progress of medical science which has almost eliminated the danger of epidemic disease so that large numbers of men could be kept together for long time under the conditions of active service With certain reservations as regards the sea would say that the changes which affect the daily lives of peoples such as development of transport and of communication tend to affect war much more than do changes of weapons Air traffic wireless telegraphy and telephony television even broadcasting will as they are perfected and'come into